I took the chance to roll my QQQ $440 April put options to $385 July put options for a $65 loss. Could have rolled for a credit spread but I was sleeping by the time the announcement came.
Hey man, perfectly ok.
So what now.
China and US market both uninvestible?
STI bestest with stable PAP policies
My 2 cents worth on what is going on.
The 90 day pause confirms that the policy intent is to contain China. The crazy Liberation Day WWE style antics was to put the world on notice that if you let China use your jurisdiction to evade tariffs, the US will come for you. A lot has been said about the inclusion of Heard and McDonald islands in Trump's tariff list. Many have pointed to it as a mistake and a sign that a generative AI was used to make the chart. My take is that this was intentional. It wa to send the message that no matter how remote the location, the US is watching.
The next step to confirm this hypothesis are the policy demands that the US will make. If these involve safeguards to stop Chinese tariff evasion, it would further confirm the policy intent. For SG, we better be super on the ball. There are 195 countries in the world. Trump chose to highlight 50. Taking away the nonsensical entries like Heard and McDonald islands, it would seem that the chart he was holding up was shortlist of countries that they feel are most involved in the China tariff evasion trade. If we want to avoid being targeted, we better play ball and do what the US wants.
On China, the situation is interesting. Conventional commentary suggests that China will not back down. In another thread before all this happened, I wrote about how there are signs that XJP has lost control of the PLA to ZYX. On the civilian side, most of the factions are looking to the 3 elders for directions. The end game is for XJP to step down and for a new leader to take over after his current term ends. There is now a Game of Thrones being played in Zhongnanhai. In his recent trip, SM Lee met with the 3 elder's preferred chocie.
If XJP is still in charge, chances are against them capitulating to Trump. If however he has become a figurehead, then it becomes likely that they will force him to do it, preferably in a humiliating way.
With the 90 day pause, Trump is signalling he is ready to move on. His comment of the budget is telling. He is signalling he wants his tax cuts next. If this is true, we should prepare for market to go back to ATH.
Never a dull moment ...
In fact, Navarro was also pumping the market but I dissed it as unintelligent.https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114308272725981913
Can't believe Trump ask pple to buy the dip on his Truth Social media before he rolled back the tariffs..
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114308272725981913
Can't believe Trump ask pple to buy the dip on his Truth Social media before he rolled back the tariffs..
Where got FED need to bid directly?
I did hear rumors that China side was preparing to dump their stash of Treasuries as part of retaliation against the US. I felt it would super dumb if they did. FED already has established active presence in the secondary from QE. The primary dealers would be able to alert them of a Chinese dump. They would simply step in buy up whatever the Chinese were dumping. To prevent the money supply from spiking, they would lock up whatever excess in RR.
Hope everyone came out in one piece from that rollercoaster ride
I am guessing many accounts have been liquidated, like this fellow:
https://www.reddit.com/r/singaporefi/s/LD3noS5EWO
News mentioned it was Japan
but but u are looking at short term fluctuations and saying it is difficult for long term investing?
Leme repeat myself again…..Long term investing requires blind faith in the asset u are investing.
Without blind faith, cannot make it one……keep searching until u find one asset/faith else like what some others are doing……..save cash and CPF and focus on active income and family well being for eg.
It is relative right? If someone is saving money and buying silver at every fall and keeps accumulating for 40 years, I think will end up with a million dollars worth of silver and they would consider themselves as winners, even though maybe money in safe risk free bonds would have made the same amount of money.
