YTD 2026 Networth tracking thread

[limster]

I find CPF to be an interesting financial instrument to use at age 55, besides for property. One can toggle between various CPF strategies, including Amundi funds, CPF cash refunds, and ERS.

I did some back of the envelope calculations and find that if I pick only FRS and invest the difference between FRS and ERS and achieve 4%/year, I will outperformCPF Life payouts and furthermore on death, the entire principal sum is intact for distribution to beneficiaries.

 

[laokorkor]

I did some back of the envelope calculations and find that if I pick only FRS and invest the difference between FRS and ERS and achieve 4%/year, I will outperformCPF Life payouts and furthermore on death, the entire principal sum is intact for distribution to beneficiaries.

Very weird. What's the rationale?

 

[limster]

Very weird. What's the rationale?

I am probably not modelling it entirely correctly, and maybe 4% to beat/equal CPF Life is too low and some of my assumptions about CPF Life/ Retirement account are incorrect.

If I take a higher investment return like 8%/year, investing the money yourself is clearly superior to CPF Life ERS, even if some of my assumptions are several basis points off. I have looked around to see if any financial bloggers have modelled DIY vs ERS and haven't found any yet.

 

[wutawa]

I am considering to invest my oa but I don't include it in my liquid networth. I never include my hdb because I do not know it's current valuation. how long will I be sentenced if convicted?

 

[RedsYWNA]

I did some back of the envelope calculations and find that if I pick only FRS and invest the difference between FRS and ERS and achieve 4%/year, I will outperformCPF Life payouts and furthermore on death, the entire principal sum is intact for distribution to beneficiaries.

I am considering topping up to ERS when i reach 64. I did a rough calculation, and the perpetual drawdown is roughly 6+% from 65 till demise, which i think is a fair deal

 

[LexusIS]

I am considering topping up to ERS when i reach 64. I did a rough calculation, and the perpetual drawdown is roughly 6+% from 65 till demise, which i think is a fair deal

Oh topping up ERS early is to gain the 4% compounding effect. If you top up later, you will lose the 4% compounding effect and the monthly amount given will drop vs top up at 55 vs top up at 64

 

[limster]

ok I tried to model it based on FRS=$220,400, ERS=$440,800.

* Option 1: Set aside $440,800 ERS at age 55 and start CPF Life standard plan at age 65 - $3,410 monthly payout ($1660 extra over FRS monthly payout)
* Option 2: Set aside $220,400 FRS at age 55 and start CPF Life standard plan at age 65 - $1,750 monthly payout and reinvest the $220,400 at 5.5%.

* TLDR long term 5.5% annual return seems to be the breakeven point between Option 1 and Option 2.

* Math: $220,400 DIY investing at 5.5% for 10 years = $376,475. Assuming that once withdrawal at age 65 starts, you are still generating 5.5% return so you can withdraw 5.5% p.a. 5.5% of $376,475 give you $1,725.50 per month which is slightly more than the $1660 extra you get from putting it into ERS, and the principal is untouched in option 2.

*of course there are issues like 'sequence of return risk' which SWR enthusiasts worry about. My solution to sequence of return risk is to achieve higher than 5.5% which is the borderline and go for 7-8% p.a. long term returns based on my own investing track record by the time I reach 55. Then you would have build a large buffer compounding your returns between age 55-65 and have less stress (due to larger buffer) when withdrawals begin.


- I don't assume that my math is perfect, just sharing. Happy if someone else wants to share their own modelling of FRS vs ERS.

 

[RedsYWNA]

Oh topping up ERS early is to gain the 4% compounding effect. If you top up later, you will lose the 4% compounding effect and the monthly amount given will drop vs top up at 55 vs top up at 64

Yes, the idea is that between 55 to 65, I can generate higher than 4% returns, which is then invested into ERS at 64 to reduce risk of money running out in old age

 

[laokorkor]

ok I tried to model it based on FRS=$220,400, ERS=$440,800.

* Option 1: Set aside $440,800 ERS at age 55 and start CPF Life standard plan at age 65 - $3,410 monthly payout ($1660 extra over FRS monthly payout)
* Option 2: Set aside $220,400 FRS at age 55 and start CPF Life standard plan at age 65 - $1,750 monthly payout and reinvest the $220,400 at 5.5%.

* TLDR long term 5.5% annual return seems to be the breakeven point between Option 1 and Option 2.

* Math: $220,400 DIY investing at 5.5% for 10 years = $376,475. Assuming that once withdrawal at age 65 starts, you are still generating 5.5% return so you can withdraw 5.5% p.a. 5.5% of $376,475 give you $1,725.50 per month which is slightly more than the $1660 extra you get from putting it into ERS, and the principal is untouched in option 2.

*of course there are issues like 'sequence of return risk' which SWR enthusiasts worry about. My solution to sequence of return risk is to achieve higher than 5.5% which is the borderline and go for 7-8% p.a. long term returns based on my own investing track record by the time I reach 55. Then you would have build a large buffer compounding your returns between age 55-65 and have less stress (due to larger buffer) when withdrawals begin.


- I don't assume that my math is perfect, just sharing. Happy if someone else wants to share their own modelling of FRS vs ERS.

I went through and validated the math, it's certainly correct.

OTOH, while I think it might be suitable for you, it's certainly not suitable for the vast majority of the CPF population investing their own CPFIS. You can see how horrible the aggregated CPFIS performance is from the link below.

https://www.cpf.gov.sg/service/arti...f-investment-scheme-ordinary-account-cpfis-oa

For the period from 2016 till 2024 - 12% made a loss, and 17% made 0% to less than 2.5% return. Most probably few made more than 5.5%. This is a time of buoyant markets with a short exception during the covid period. If CPF members can't manage their portfolio during this rosy period, it'll definitely tank during the 2000 till 2010 dismay decade period.

For the period from 1986 till 2001 - the US market made 15.3% while the US Mensa Investment Club (the high IQ society of which I'm a Singapore charter member) made 2.5% annualized.

5.5% is a really high hurdle for the retail investor to cross - if a triple-A credit institution is willing to handle it for you risk free, please let them handle the money, it'll save you a lot of sleepless night and the possibility of going hungry in your golden years.

 

[CrashWire]

He includes CPF.... call the networth police!

What's wrong with including CPF? If a person dies, the entirety of CPF gets distributed to their beneficiaries as cash.

 

[limster]

I went through and validated the math, it's certainly correct.

OTOH, while I think it might be suitable for you, it's certainly not suitable for the vast majority of the CPF population investing their own CPFIS. You can see how horrible the aggregated CPFIS performance is from the link below.

https://www.cpf.gov.sg/service/arti...f-investment-scheme-ordinary-account-cpfis-oa

For the period from 2016 till 2024 - 12% made a loss, and 17% made 0% to less than 2.5% return. Most probably few made more than 5.5%. This is a time of buoyant markets with a short exception during the covid period. If CPF members can't manage their portfolio during this rosy period, it'll definitely tank during the 2000 till 2010 dismay decade period.

For the period from 1986 till 2001 - the US market made 15.3% while the US Mensa Investment Club (the high IQ society of which I'm a Singapore charter member) made 2.5% annualized.

5.5% is a really high hurdle for the retail investor to cross - if a triple-A credit institution is willing to handle it for you risk free, please let them handle the money, it'll save you a lot of sleepless night and the possibility of going hungry in your golden years.

Thanks for your detailed views and going through the calculations.
I agree that investors need to be realistic about their expected returns.
When I turn 55, I plan to take a long hard look at my investing returns. If I achieved 7%+ annual returns between age 35-55, I am reasonably confident that my returns will still be in that range from age 55-65 (furthermore even if I underperform slightly, I have a 'buffer' since I only need 5.0-5.5% to 'beat' CPF Life ERS). If not, then yes, better play safe and top up ERS.

As for CPFIS, I easily beat the 2.5% every year because I bought dividend stocks: STI ETF, Comfort Delgro, and Frasers Centrepoint Trust. So I get between 3%-5% dividends every year, in additional to capital gain as market price of the stocks are higher than my average buying prices. The compounding effect of dividends is probably one factor that helped me reached $1m in CPF.

Maybe a lot of the CPFIS losers used their CPFIS to buy ILP and other overpriced insurance products?

 

[Euqorab]

Thanks for your detailed views and going through the calculations.
I agree that investors need to be realistic about their expected returns.
When I turn 55, I plan to take a long hard look at my investing returns. If I achieved 7%+ annual returns between age 35-55, I am reasonably confident that my returns will still be in that range from age 55-65 (furthermore even if I underperform slightly, I have a 'buffer' since I only need 5.0-5.5% to 'beat' CPF Life ERS). If not, then yes, better play safe and top up ERS.

As for CPFIS, I easily beat the 2.5% every year because I bought dividend stocks: STI ETF, Comfort Delgro, and Frasers Centrepoint Trust. So I get between 3%-5% dividends every year, in additional to capital gain as market price of the stocks are higher than my average buying prices. The compounding effect of dividends is probably one factor that helped me reached $1m in CPF.

Maybe a lot of the CPFIS losers used their CPFIS to buy ILP and other overpriced insurance products?

Their financial advisors have been the winners

 

[stanlawj]

Thanks for your detailed views and going through the calculations.
I agree that investors need to be realistic about their expected returns.
When I turn 55, I plan to take a long hard look at my investing returns. If I achieved 7%+ annual returns between age 35-55, I am reasonably confident that my returns will still be in that range from age 55-65 (furthermore even if I underperform slightly, I have a 'buffer' since I only need 5.0-5.5% to 'beat' CPF Life ERS). If not, then yes, better play safe and top up ERS.

Your returns are already 20% per year right? You're already beating your minimum 7%. The key is to ensure allocation of stocks/equities in the main theme. Like now is AI.

 

[limster]

Your returns are already 20% per year right? You're already beating your minimum 7%. The key is to ensure allocation of stocks/equities in the main theme. Like now is AI.

Over 15+ years, I am probably closer to 10% CAGR rather than 20%.

Those that can generate 20% consistently for 15 years are a special breed of investors and probably beat most professional fund managers as well....

 

[Mr.Canberra]

If ROI is 10% and above p.a. is considered very good liao. Outperformed many investors.

 

[highsulphur]

If ROI is 10% and above p.a. is considered very good liao. Outperformed many investors.

I am happy with 8pa

 

[Mr.Canberra]

I am happy with 8pa

If play China markets 8% and above p.a. ROI is easily achievable.

However have to factor in exchange rate gain/loss for HKD or CNY against SGD.

 

[limster]

If play China markets 8% and above p.a. ROI is easily achievable.

However have to factor in exchange rate gain/loss for HKD or CNY against SGD.

For me, my HK/China ETFs which I started buying in 2018 only broke even last year (excluding dividends of about 3%+ a year).

I had more luck with SG stocks. This is my stanchart trading account. Mainly SG stocks including SG Reits which didn't do so good and some LSE ETF.. Since 2017 annualised 10.58%.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

For me, my HK/China ETFs which I started buying in 2018 only broke even last year (excluding dividends of about 3%+ a year).

I had more luck with SG stocks. This is my stanchart trading account. Mainly SG stocks including SG Reits which didn't do so good and some LSE ETF.. Since 2017 annualised 10.58%.

HSI counters better not touch or very minimal. Want to "gamble/invest" might as well punt on mainland indexes or A shares. The risk to reward ratio is very high.

Nice sharing the geo location for the asset allocation of your portfolio. Can use as a reference in the future.

 

[hwmook]

I admire all these young folks having 2.13m networth at such a young age.

When I was 30 years old, I had 0 in my bank Account.

How times have changed.

He is not 30, he is going to be 40 in a few months time. He also mentioned that he reach 1m 5 years ago so 1m around 35. Maybe he got like 500k at 30 so don't compare the wrong number. You also must see which era are you from. If you are in your 50s then you are from a different generation where the same money have a different value.