2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[boroangel]

Well done Quite an elaborate plan.

My equities have done well so far however got hit by adverse moves in SLV. Still positive for the year. Some of the short options should be showing losses if the IV spikes a lot, though the underlying well OTM. Plan to scale up the swing trade in QQQ as the market trends lower over the next few weeks / months.

yes same here, still have positions on SQQQ and SARK. But ARKK is really at the bottom now, not sure how much meat left on it to short.
I am also keeping short positions on TSLA, and Peloton. Was a good ride down on Peloton and I believe the company could go down further by splits and go down to $1 equivalent, in fact I am not sure if Peloton will be around in a few years time?

Do you think now is the right time to go light on energy stocks and offload?

 

[boringLife-]

Wah I scrimp and save since my university days 4 years ago and invest diligently into global equity every month, now in the red liao. Means my 4 year portfolio returns underperform bank deposit omg

Even if lump sum buy into ARKK with god like timing on march 2020, also in the red.

 

[sohguanh]

Wah I scrimp and save since my university days 4 years ago and invest diligently into global equity every month, now in the red liao. Means my 4 year portfolio returns underperform bank deposit omg

Even if lump sum buy into ARKK with god like timing on march 2020, also in the red.

Did you diversify into capital guaranteed instruments like bank FD, endowment insurance,SSB etc besides stock, ETF etc investment?

 

[ctan84]

Wah I scrimp and save since my university days 4 years ago and invest diligently into global equity every month, now in the red liao. Means my 4 year portfolio returns underperform bank deposit omg

Even if lump sum buy into ARKK with god like timing on march 2020, also in the red.

You must be super sway and ended up buying crap coz whatever you bought for almost the entire 2020 should still help you be in the green.

 

[boringLife-]

You must be super sway and ended up buying crap coz whatever you bought for almost the entire 2020 should still help you be in the green.

I only buy IWDA and EIMI. I looked through my trade confirms, and realised I always buy a lot when the price is very high

E.g. in my university days, when IWDA was $50 I only could afford $300 per month because no job. Then last year when I changed to a higher paying job + year end bonuses, I bought almost $20k IWDA at >$85 and $10k EIMI at >$35 because "Time in the market beat timing the market"

 

[TehSi99]

STI nowadays morning up 20-30pts then close red

Affected by US pre-market ?

 

[churnmaster]

yes same here, still have positions on SQQQ and SARK. But ARKK is really at the bottom now, not sure how much meat left on it to short.
I am also keeping short positions on TSLA, and Peloton. Was a good ride down on Peloton and I believe the company could go down further by splits and go down to $1 equivalent, in fact I am not sure if Peloton will be around in a few years time?

Do you think now is the right time to go light on energy stocks and offload?

I've sold all the energy company stocks quite sometime back when the murmur around windfall gain tax started. Now, even Biden has sent a message to the oil companies. We saw these things in 2008 as well. BNO and UNG, I sold only about 2 weeks back. They are purely tracking Brent and HH Natgas price and the structure (forward curve).

Since we are already seeing a diverge between the underlying commodity price and the stock price of commodity players, I guess its time to offload.

 

[d5dude]

Wah I scrimp and save since my university days 4 years ago and invest diligently into global equity every month, now in the red liao. Means my 4 year portfolio returns underperform bank deposit omg

Even if lump sum buy into ARKK with god like timing on march 2020, also in the red.

I only buy IWDA and EIMI. I looked through my trade confirms, and realised I always buy a lot when the price is very high

E.g. in my university days, when IWDA was $50 I only could afford $300 per month because no job. Then last year when I changed to a higher paying job + year end bonuses, I bought almost $20k IWDA at >$85 and $10k EIMI at >$35 because "Time in the market beat timing the market"

Lump sum is always going to be riskier. There will always be times when stocks get too expensive e.g dot com bubble. If you had put in a lump sum in 2000 and did nothing afterward, your returns wouldnt be as good as if you had just DCA'd into the market over that same period of time.

The people who use Vanguard's "research" on lump sum vs DCA to tout lump sum investing are just intellectually dishonest, unless you think stocks only go up and to the right there is no safer way to invest than running a 60/40 portfolio with DCA. DCA makes sure that you never put all your money into work when valuations become stretched, and rebalancing with a 60/40 makes sure that you get to sell stocks after massive run ups (relative to the cash/bonds you are holding).

 

[churnmaster]

Looks like tonight we might get to see 3600 on the S&P 500. At least on a intraday basis if not closing.

 

[kickass22]

Lump sum is always going to be riskier. There will always be times when stocks get too expensive e.g dot com bubble. If you had put in a lump sum in 2000 and did nothing afterward, your returns wouldnt be as good as if you had just DCA'd into the market over that same period of time.

The people who use Vanguard's "research" on lump sum vs DCA to tout lump sum investing are just intellectually dishonest, unless you think stocks only go up and to the right there is no safer way to invest than running a 60/40 portfolio with DCA. DCA makes sure that you never put all your money into work when valuations become stretched, and rebalancing with a 60/40 makes sure that you get to sell stocks after massive run ups (relative to the cash/bonds you are holding).

Just adding on to this :
Whether Lump Sum or DCA into World ETF's . The time period of your investing makes a huge difference. If your time period is over 20 - 30 yrs, it does not really matter. This is what multiple research on this topic has found out.

So consider the time period to make some of these decisions.

 

[limster]

Looks like tonight we might get to see 3600 on the S&P 500. At least on a intraday basis if not closing.

Friday short covering will probably limit losses. I will continue my buying next week. Always nice to have a warchest available in case there is a sale!

 

[churnmaster]

Friday short covering will probably limit losses. I will continue my buying next week. Always nice to have a warchest available in case there is a sale!

I agree. I'm with you.

 

[churnmaster]

Just adding on to this :
Whether Lump Sum or DCA into World ETF's . The time period of your investing makes a huge difference. If your time period is over 20 - 30 yrs, it does not really matter. This is what multiple research on this topic has found out.

So consider the time period to make some of these decisions.

You are right. However, all those researches are based on a time period when interest rates have dropped.

For 4 decades, interest rates have dropped and now it has made a major turn. If interest rates rise up to 5-6% over the next few years, things could look quite different.

Some don't want to consider that possibility. Well, time will tell.

 

[kickass22]

You are right. However, all those researches are based on a time period when interest rates have dropped.

For 4 decades, interest rates have dropped and now it has made a major turn. If interest rates rise up to 5-6% over the next few years, things could look quite different.

Some don't want to consider that possibility. Well, time will tell.

Actually, a number of thesee research consider inflation as they look at a long history , including where there were high inflation rates.

 

[pcuser123]

Need to remember tonight is the Triple Witching Day in the US. Things can happen when they shouldn't have happened especially since the US market has just entered a bear market and there is a real fear about the recession at the moment.

The US trade could be volatile today. Do expect the unexpected.

 

[kickass22]

If you had a long time period and had DCA your way through these high and low inflation periods, you would have done well. From a retirement planning perspective, sequence of risk seems to be more a key risk.

These are some of the details I was able to elicit from reading research and articles across the various finance blogs mostly from U.S.

 

[d9_lives]

Just keep buying.
Trust me bro, I am a pro dip buyer.

 

[pcuser123]

"Only the one who tied the bell to the devil dared to untie the bell from the devil"

For the market to recover, there must be good news told about Ukraine's war, the rate hikes and the QTs.

 

[endlssorrow]

yes same here, still have positions on SQQQ and SARK. But ARKK is really at the bottom now, not sure how much meat left on it to short.
I am also keeping short positions on TSLA, and Peloton. Was a good ride down on Peloton and I believe the company could go down further by splits and go down to $1 equivalent, in fact I am not sure if Peloton will be around in a few years time?

Do you think now is the right time to go light on energy stocks and offload?

Arkk can buy liao.. so low
Energy can try pbw

 

[endlssorrow]

Wah I scrimp and save since my university days 4 years ago and invest diligently into global equity every month, now in the red liao. Means my 4 year portfolio returns underperform bank deposit omg

Even if lump sum buy into ARKK with god like timing on march 2020, also in the red.

Buy more to avaerge down lor