Official May 2017 BTO

[fembot]

i think in short is:

first round ballot is to qualify for queue ticket. chances is based on the different priority scheme.

2nd round is everyone shortlisted from first round randomly get a queue number. i think this part is equal chances for everyone regardless of the priority scheme they are under.

woah. this is the first time i heard of this. is it true so?
my initial thinking or understanding is that,

everyone will get a random queue number - yes computerised.
after which, based on your queue number, you will be grouped to your individual schemes - public, MCPS, etc.
this individual schemes will have a quota respectively, eg. 30% of MCPS.

based on this, you will be competing with your individual scheme group accordingly.

this is based on my understanding and not extracted from any HDB sources. can someone please verify if this understanding of mine is right/wrong? i do hope its wrong la, since the public domain (without the priority scheme) appears to be heavily disadvantaged.

 

[Misa]

Nope, applying for Marsiling Grove so I made a few site visits You?

oh how's your chances like? you applied 3, 4 or 5? actually that plot not bad, i think most of the units all N/S or E facing, somemore got shops , eating house and minimart. back and front got busstop, don't have to walk too far. only thing i dont like is its just next to the school.... lol

 

[BombVoyage]

woah. this is the first time i heard of this. is it true so?
my initial thinking or understanding is that,

everyone will get a random queue number - yes computerised.
after which, based on your queue number, you will be grouped to your individual schemes - public, MCPS, etc.
this individual schemes will have a quota respectively, eg. 30% of MCPS.

based on this, you will be competing with your individual scheme group accordingly.

this is based on my understanding and not extracted from any HDB sources. can someone please verify if this understanding of mine is right/wrong? i do hope its wrong la, since the public domain (without the priority scheme) appears to be heavily disadvantaged.

hahah not sure, just my thought after reading the various posts

 

[deskoh91]

Based on my observations from three application cycles so far, I would say the priority schemes help people get a chance to ballot for a queue number anywhere within 300 percent of flat supply in a certain order, not within their own groups. Exactly which group goes first is unknown except to a select few in HDB, probably

 

[deskoh91]

oh how's your chances like? you applied 3, 4 or 5? actually that plot not bad, i think most of the units all N/S or E facing, somemore got shops , eating house and minimart. back and front got busstop, don't have to walk too far. only thing i dont like is its just next to the school.... lol

Applying for a 4 room under MGPS, wonder if there are many applicants like me. Yes, it's a pretty decent development, there is another eating house, more shops and even a supermarket next door at greenview too. Thought what's more worrying are all the old hantu stories

 

[eriolmoon2008]

Good luck all. Tried 3 times before i manage to even get a number in AUG 2016 BTO.

With scheme it does help, but ultimately it all down to luck of ballot number. Think planning also important like BTO>SOBF>Resale or private estate to have own space to live if die die no luck to get number...

 

[didiboogie]

Good luck all. Tried 3 times before i manage to even get a number in AUG 2016 BTO.

With scheme it does help, but ultimately it all down to luck of ballot number. Think planning also important like BTO>SOBF>Resale or private estate to have own space to live if die die no luck to get number...

this is my 3rd try..

no number for the first, a number for the 2nd but way over the supply, third time strike lottery?

 

[windwaver]

so how does the ballot really works?

say units allocated 95% first timers and 5% second timers.

application rate for 1st timer is 0.9
application rate for 2nd timer is 11.0
total applications 425
total units avaliable 300

HDB give numbers up too 300%, means 1 - 900.

Do they ballot for the 100% (1 - 300) sure get group first then they give numbers (301 - 900) to the unpick for the 200%?
(pirorities schemes will fight in their own group for the 15% first.
1st timer will fight in their own group for the 95% first.
2nd timers will fight between their own for the 5%.
then all the other unselected give the numbers after units avaliable (number 301 onwards))


OR they just group everyone together and randomly allocate to everyone because the total number of applicants havent not even hit the 300% (number 900).

Please assist the confused me.

Priority schemes just give you additional ballot chances, it doesn't affect your queue number in choosing a unit.

I'll like to put it this way,

Priority Queue -> Public Queue -> Queue Number.

So for those who didn't get a ticket in the ballot for the priority queue, they get balloted in the public queue. After that, the pool that gets the ticket get balloted again for a queue number.

So yes, priority schemes do help but it doesn't affect your queue number.

 

[GeraldineT]

Based on my observations from three application cycles so far, I would say the priority schemes help people get a chance to ballot for a queue number anywhere within 300 percent of flat supply in a certain order, not within their own groups. Exactly which group goes first is unknown except to a select few in HDB, probably

Not true. I have friends who applied under near parents and no umber

 

[fembot]

Priority schemes just give you additional ballot chances, it doesn't affect your queue number in choosing a unit.

I'll like to put it this way,

Priority Queue -> Public Queue -> Queue Number.

So for those who didn't get a ticket in the ballot for the priority queue, they get balloted in the public queue. After that, the pool that gets the ticket get balloted again for a queue number.

So yes, priority schemes do help but it doesn't affect your queue number.

by far, this is the most legit explanation. i think it truly make sense then.
let's take dakota 3R application for instance, if we have a 0.9 ratio for first timer and applying your theory, does it mean that all of which the first timer applicants will be allocated with a guaranteed booking?

 

[xtwis7]

Well at least I know I'll confirm get a unit at Yishun, just how good only. Intend to fully pay off loan in 5-10 years.

 

[windwaver]

by far, this is the most legit explanation. i think it truly make sense then.
let's take dakota 3R application for instance, if we have a 0.9 ratio for first timer and applying your theory, does it mean that all of which the first timer applicants will be allocated with a guaranteed booking?

Yes, anything below 1 means all applicants will get to choose within 100%.

 

[fembot]

Yes, anything below 1 means all applicants will get to choose within 100%.

thank you for the kind reply, and this is despite the overall subscribers are 425/300. We are not considering 2nd timer being there to disrupt the first timer chance right?

 

[deskoh91]

Not true. I have friends who applied under near parents and no umber

Because there are so many who applied under this scheme (more than the 30 percent of units set aside, just 30%!) that not all MCPS applicants get a chance to ballot within the MCPS pool ma..

 

[LoneReaction]

Because there are so many who applied under this scheme (more than the 30 percent of units set aside, just 30%!) that not all MCPS applicants get a chance to ballot within the MCPS pool ma..

If HDB can disclose MCPS and PPS statistics would be really useful.

 

[windwaver]

thank you for the kind reply, and this is despite the overall subscribers are 425/300. We are not considering 2nd timer being there to disrupt the first timer chance right?

That application rate is only good for determining whether you get a ticket or not, it doesn't reflect the queue number.

In this case,

Flat supply 3rm: 300
FT: 0.9 = (0.95*300=285)*0.9 = 256.5 ~ 257*
ST: 11.5 = (0.05*300=15)*11.5 = 172.5 ~ 173*

*rounding error
*However, for both non-mature and mature estates, some flats are also set aside for quota-based priority schemes, where HDB does not differentiate between first-timers and second-timers

As you can see, the number of units reserved for first timers is 285 while the number of applications is roughly 257. In other words, all first timers will get a unit. However, that doesn't mean they'll get a good number.

 

[fembot]

That application rate is only good for determining whether you get a ticket or not, it doesn't reflect the queue number.

In this case,

Flat supply 3rm: 300
FT: 0.9 = (0.95*300=285)*0.9 = 256.5 ~ 257*
ST: 11.5 = (0.05*300=15)*11.5 = 172.5 ~ 173*

*rounding error
*However, for both non-mature and mature estates, some flats are also set aside for quota-based priority schemes, where HDB does not differentiate between first-timers and second-timers

As you can see, the number of units reserved for first timers is 285 while the number of applications is roughly 257. In other words, all first timers will get a unit. However, that doesn't mean they'll get a good number.

woah wind, i think this is the best information that one should know when applying for BTO. Definitely very insightful and i will easily say that this is better than what HDB can offer in their website.

Can i recommend this to remain as sticky post? hahaa just in case anyone will need to refer again

 

[Lexyyy]

thank you for the kind reply, and this is despite the overall subscribers are 425/300. We are not considering 2nd timer being there to disrupt the first timer chance right?

Maybe for this case they will first ballot the second timer group to choose the [(flat supply x 5%) + unapplied supply from first timer group] lucky couples with considerations of the various schemes. Add these people to the FT pool which should equate to total flat supply. Generate random queue number from 1 to flat supply for this group. Leftover ST gets randomly queued to the back.

Probably how it works for undersubscribed FT flat types since getting a queue number exceeding total flat supply for a FT doesn't sound like any priorities are being given.

 

[windwaver]

woah wind, i think this is the best information that one should know when applying for BTO. Definitely very insightful and i will easily say that this is better than what HDB can offer in their website.

Can i recommend this to remain as sticky post? hahaa just in case anyone will need to refer again

Oh well, I've posted the calculations plenty of times by now but I'm glad it works for you .

 

[windwaver]

Maybe for this case they will first ballot the second timer group to choose the [(flat supply x 5%) + unapplied supply from first timer group] lucky couples with considerations of the various schemes. Add these people to the FT pool which should equate to total flat supply. Generate random queue number from 1 to flat supply for this group. Leftover ST gets randomly queued to the back.

Probably how it works for undersubscribed FT flat types since getting a queue number exceeding total flat supply for a FT doesn't sound like any priorities are being given.

From what I know, HDB will definitely fulfill the first timer flat supply obligation before allocating the excess to second timers.

Frankly, I'll not be worried if I'm a first timer for a mature estate as 95% will be allocated. Second timers on the other hand will need a miracle even if there is an under subscription for first timers.

Second timers will be better off going resale or non-mature estates.